Crude Oil Price Forecast - Crude Oil Continues to Face Same Problems - FX Empire

Crude Oil Price Forecast - Crude Oil Continues to Face Same Problems - FX Empire


Crude Oil Price Forecast - Crude Oil Continues to Face Same Problems - FX Empire

Posted: 18 Nov 2020 08:39 AM PST

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has shown itself to be resilient, but not necessarily ready to break out. There is a complete disconnect between those who are looking at a post coronavirus world, and those who are looking at reality. After all, there will be a vaccine eventually, but sooner or later we are going to run out of storage for crude oil and it is more likely than not going to happen before the vaccine gets here. Eventually, there will be a reckoning. Right now, it does not look like the hoped-for quite ready to give up, so short-term selling opportunities probably continue to be the main way forward. With that being said, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to buy the market, but I am more than willing to short it on short-term signs of exhaustion.

Crude Oil Video 19.11.20

Brent

Brent markets initially tried to rally as well but gave back the gains at the 200 day EMA as we continue to see a lot of noise in general. At this point in time I believe that you continue to fade short-term rallies, because quite frankly there is no global growth and by extension there will be very little demand for crude oil. Yes, I understand that a vaccine is coming down the road and about a year but that has nothing to do with what is going on now. Rather, I should say that it has nothing to do with the perception of sudden global growth that people have. Disappointment will continue to be a major issue, so I look to take advantage of optimism and fade every time it gets a little overdone.

Crude Oil Price Forecast - Crude Oil Recover After Vaccine News - FX Empire

Posted: 16 Nov 2020 08:26 AM PST

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday to break above the 200 day EMA. Having said that, the market still has a lot of resistance above at the $43.50 level as well. I think this rally is probably short for this world, and therefore sellers will probably step back in and punish those who would trade in such a significant impulsive move. Ultimately, if we break down below the 50 day EMA which is currently at the $39.75 level, then we probably go looking towards the bottom of the range near the $36.25 level.

Crude Oil Video 17.11.20

Brent

Brent markets rallied right into the 200 day EMA, showing signs of bullish pressure yet again, but at this point in time I think this is a market that continues to see a lot of resistance above and therefore I think it is only a matter of time before we roll over again. The 50 day EMA underneath is near the $42 level, and therefore it might be a bit of a target and perhaps even support. If we were to break down below there, then the market likely goes down towards the $39 level. That being said, it is difficult to imagine that just because there is a vaccine all of the sudden, we have huge demand for crude oil. Buyers who have stepped in in the last 24 hours are more than likely short-term buyers more than anything else and once the fundamentals come back into play it is likely that we will see selling again.

Oil Prices Under Pressure After API Reports Crude Inventory Build - OilPrice.com

Posted: 17 Nov 2020 01:43 PM PST

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a build in crude oil inventories of 4.174 million barrels for the week ending November 13.

Analysts had predicted an inventory build of 1.95-million barrels.

In the previous week, the API reported a large draw in oil inventories of 5.147-million barrels, after analysts had predicted a draw of 913,000 barrels for the week.

Oil prices were trading down on Tuesday afternoon before the API's data release despite significant vaccine news, as OPEC+ indicated that it could extend its current production cuts for an additional three months. Pressuring prices include widespread lockdowns, weaker than anticipated economic data in the United States, and Libya's surging oil production. 

In the runup to Tuesday's data release, at 11:53 a.m. EDT, WTI had fallen by $0.48 (-1.16%) to $40.86 down roughly $0.50 per barrel on the week. The Brent crude benchmark had fallen on the day by $0.61 at that time (-1.39%) to $43.21—down about $0.40 per barrel on the week.

But oil prices ticked higher in the later afternoon hours.

U.S. oil production was unchanged in the last reporting week, at 10.5 million bpd, according to the Energy Information Administration—2.6 million bpd lower than the all-time high of 13.1 million bpd reached in March.

The API reported a build in gasoline inventories of 256,000 barrels of gasoline for the week ending November 13—compared to the previous week's 3.297-million-barrel draw. Analysts had expected a 450,000-barrel build for the week.

Distillate inventories were down by 5.024-million barrels for the week, compared to last week's 5.619-million-barrel draw, while Cushing inventories rose by 176,000 barrels.

At 4:39 pm EDT, the WTI benchmark was trading at $41.45 while Brent crude was trading at $43.87.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Oil drops more than 5% to three-week low as coronavirus cases surge - CNBC

Posted: 27 Oct 2020 12:00 AM PDT

A view of the Marathon Petroleum Corp's Los Angeles Refinery in Carson, California, April 25, 2020.

Robyn Beck | AFP | Getty Images

Oil prices fell over 5% to a three-week low on Wednesday as surging coronavirus infections in the United States and Europe are leading to renewed lockdowns, fanning fears that the unsteady economic recovery will deteriorate.

Brent futures fell $2.12, or 5.15%, to $39.08 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 5.5%, or $2.18, lower at $37.39 per barrel, its lowest level in three weeks.

That puts both benchmarks on track for their lowest closes since Oct. 2.

Crude price declines mirrored downturns in other risk-asset markets, as U.S. stock indexes were all lower, with the S&P 500 down 2.7%.

The safe-haven U.S. dollar rose 0.5% on prospects of national lockdowns in Germany and France to fight the pandemic. The stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies, which traders said weighed on crude prices.

The United States, Russia, France and other countries have registered record numbers of COVID-19 cases in recent days and European governments have introduced new curbs to try to rein in the fast-growing outbreaks.

Adding pressure to oil prices, U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week as production surged in a record build, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

"Crude oil domestic production number is up a crazy amount – why would producers do that? That's not good, as it implies we will have a lot of crude oil for a long time coming out of the ground," said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.

Traders said crude prices were also hit by fading prospects for a quick deal on a new U.S. stimulus, and increasing oil output from Libya.

On Tuesday U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged that a coronavirus economic relief package was unlikely until after next Tuesday's election.

Libya's production is expected to rebound to 1 million barrels per day in the coming weeks.

All that bearish news, overshadowed the bullish shutdown of around half of U.S. offshore Gulf of Mexico production ahead of Hurricane Zeta, which is expected to slam into the Gulf Coast later Wednesday.

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