EIA Raises 2021 Oil Price Forecasts - Rigzone News

EIA Raises 2021 Oil Price Forecasts - Rigzone News


EIA Raises 2021 Oil Price Forecasts - Rigzone News

Posted: 13 Jan 2021 03:42 AM PST

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its Brent spot average and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot average prices for 2021, according to its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO) report.

In its January STEO, the EIA sees 2021 Brent spot prices averaging $52.70 per barrel and 2021 WTI spot prices averaging $49.70 per barrel. The EIA revealed in its December STEO that it saw 2021 Brent spot prices averaging $48.53 per barrel and 2021 WTI spot prices averaging $45.78 per barrel. Oil prices are further expected to increase in 2022, according to the EIA's January STEO, which projects a Brent spot average of $53.44 next year and a WTI spot average of $49.81.

The EIA estimates that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels averaged 92.2 million barrels per day for all of 2020, which it said was down nine million barrels per day from 2019. The organization expects global liquid fuels consumption will grow by 5.6 million barrels per day in 2021 and by 3.3 million barrels per day in 2022.

The EIA also estimates that global liquid fuels inventories rose at a rate of 6.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2020 before declining at a rate of 2.4 million barrels per day in the second half of 2020. It forecasts that global inventories will continue to fall, declining at a rate of 0.6 million barrels per day this year and 0.5 million barrels per day next year. U.S. crude oil production is estimated to have fallen from the 2019 record level of 12.2 million barrels per day to 11.3 million barrels per day in 2020. The EIA expects that annual average production will fall to 11.1 million barrels per day this year before rising to 11.5 million barrels per day in 2022.

The EIA noted that its January STEO remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to Covid-19 continue to evolve.

"Reduced economic activity and changes to consumer behavior in response to the Covid-19 pandemic caused energy demand and supply to decline in 2020," the EIA said in its latest STEO.

"The ongoing pandemic and the success of vaccination programs will continue to affect energy use in the future," the EIA added.

The EIA is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. It collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, according to its website.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

EIA Lowers 2021 Global Oil Demand Growth Estimate - OilPrice.com

Posted: 13 Jan 2021 11:30 AM PST

Global oil demand is expected to grow by 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 compared to the 2020 low of 92.2 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest estimate, with the growth forecast now around 200,000 bpd lower compared to last month's outlook.

In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA expects global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels to average 97.77 million bpd this year, down from the December STEO estimate of 98 million bpd.

For 2020, global oil demand averaged 92.2 million bpd, down by 9.0 million bpd from 2019. The 2020 estimate is also lower compared to EIA's December forecast of 92.38 million bpd.

According to EIA's latest estimates published in the January STEO this week, global oil demand will return to the pre-pandemic level in the second half of 2022, with the average 2022 demand at 101.08 million bpd, which would be growth of 3.3 million bpd compared to this year.

While the EIA cut its global oil demand forecast for 2021, it raised by $4 per barrel its average Brent Crude forecast for this year. The EIA now expects Brent crude oil spot prices to average $53 per barrel in both 2021 and 2022 compared with an average of $42 a barrel in 2020. In the December STEO, the EIA expected Brent prices to average $49 a barrel in 2021.

WTI Crude oil prices will average about $3 a barrel less than Brent prices in 2021 and $4 per barrel less than Brent in 2022, according to the EIA.

For U.S. crude oil production, EIA expects output to have declined from the record level of 12.2 million bpd in 2019 to 11.3 million bpd in 2020. Average annual production is seen further down to 11.1 million bpd this year, before rising to 11.5 million bpd in 2022.

OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish their first monthly reports for this year with their latest oil demand and production forecasts on January 14 and January 19, respectively. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Crude oil futures rise on spot demand - Economic Times

Posted: 08 Jan 2021 01:25 AM PST

Crude oil prices rose by Rs 20 to Rs 3,758 per barrel on Friday as participants widened their positions on firm spot demand.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for January delivery traded higher by Rs 20, or 0.54 per cent, at Rs 3,758 per barrel in 2,582 lots.

Analysts said raising of bets by participants kept crude oil prices higher in futures trade.

Globally, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 0.47 per cent to USD 51.07 per barrel, while Brent crude traded 0.57 per cent higher at USD 54.69 per barrel in New York.

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